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Accomplished Alumni: Evan Fisher

Atmospheric Sciences Alumnus Creates One-of-a-kind Fall Foliage Map to Track Leaf Color Changes

By UNC Asheville

October 11^th, 2023

We are only beginning to feel the first hints of fall in the air, with the temperatures averaging a crisp 60 degrees in the mornings and fog beginning to creep in where sunshine once ruled the day.

Before long, the Blue Ridge Parkway will crowd with cars and hikers, and downtown Asheville will flood with out-of-towners seeking the unique beauty and rich colors of Appalachia in fall. Soon, UNC Asheville will host its beloved tradition, Turning of the Maples, celebrating the transformation of the maples on the Quad to their fall colors.

If you want to find peak leaf color with precision, a new tool is at your disposal courtesy of alumnus Evan Fisher ‘23: ExploreFall.com and its Fall Foliage Map.

Fisher has been obsessed with the unique weather and fall scenery in southern Appalachia for years and was looking for a way to more accurately share the best leaves the region has to offer.

“It's the most fascinating place,” Fisher said. “It's highly variable because of the complex terrain, so you can have sunny and 65 degrees 10 miles away from snowy and 25 degrees. That kind of variation is so extreme and so unique to the southern Appalachians.”

This phenomenon of highly varied weather is one many UNC Asheville students can likely relate to; the surrounding areas can get significant amounts of snow when campus and central Asheville received only frost. The same factors that create such localized storms can impact the timing of the leaves changing. Above 6,000 feet you may see peak leaves in early October that in Asheville, at 2,100 feet elevation, may not come until late October or early November, Fisher said.

“I had a passion while I was at UNC Asheville for chasing the really extreme microclimates. I would run up to the top of some mountain in the middle of nowhere and go see some crazy weather for fun,” Fisher said. “And in my last year I really got into the same thing but for fall foliage. There's a couple of really small fall foliage microclimates across WNC that can reach peak color well ahead of the rest of the area. Seeking those out and really understanding why those particular spots turn so early kind of scratched that same weather itch, that fascination that I had.”

Evan Fisher chasing extreme weather conditions on Grandfather Mountain.

From a Seed of an Idea to a Full-grown Project

The idea for the Fall Foliage Map began when Fisher started to learn more about geographic information systems (GIS), mapping, and data analytics.

“One of the first random projects I thought up was to take pre-made 2D fall foliage maps that displayed average timing of peak color and overlay them onto a 3D surface. So that 3D surface was really a valuable visual for helping people understand the variation in timing.”

Fisher was inspired to launch the map via ExploreFall after seeing a need for more detailed, high resolution foliage maps. Typical foliage maps show changes at a county level, but in the mountains each county can include a variety of climates. So instead, Fisher’s map observes and forecasts fall foliage at 2.5 kilometer resolution, for a total of more than two million locations across the country.

“The goal is to improve accuracy, help more people find really good fall color, and learn more about the science of fall foliage, and how exactly the weather plays into that using statistical methods,” Fisher said.

The map shows the current, observed fall color anywhere in the lower 48, categorized by amount — little to no color, low, moderate, high, peak and past peak color — as well as a 10-day forecast for upcoming color.

Screenshot of Evan Fisher's Fall Foliage Map on ExploreFall.com

“This Fall Foliage Map pulls the most recent weather data every single day of the fall and analyzes that information to essentially calculate how colorful fall foliage is at any given place throughout the United States,” Fisher said. “It does so using a set of algorithms that I've developed through statistical analysis, over the past year relating temperature, precipitation, daylight hours, and other factors relating to fall color.”

ExploreFall also includes an archive of interactive maps depicting fall color progression from 1991 to 2022. Fisher said this archive could be useful for analyzing trends in fall foliage timing and he may eventually use this data to predict peak leaves farther out.

While weather, and thus peak leaves, can not be reliably forecasted more than 10 days out, averages of past data can be used to make educated predictions up to two months out, Fisher said.

“Although it wouldn't be an exact forecast, I think that'd be a really valuable resource for people that are planning trips two months in advance,” Fisher said.

Where the Roots Were Established

Currently, he is in a graduate program at NC State to expand his knowledge on GIS and geography. Fisher said he is immensely grateful to UNC Asheville’s atmospheric science program for getting him set up for his future.

“Almost all of my professional development happened while I was at UNC Asheville. The academic environment the professors fostered was so welcoming that I had the time to not only do school, but also do some more extracurricular, professional building,” Fisher said. “All of the education there really was just top notch. I feel like I'm well prepared and really well connected moving forward.”

In particular, he worked on research led by Doug Miller, professor of atmospheric sciences, gathering data on winter weather events such as northwest flow snow, using weather balloons and the UNC Asheville NC ECONet Weather Station.

“There aren't too many other meteorology departments or atmospheric departments in the southeast that had a set up like that on campus,” Fisher said. “That partnership with the North Carolina Climate Office is very unique and pretty amazing.”

Much of his understanding of the statistics he used to develop his methods came from classes with Chris Godfrey, chair and professor of atmospheric sciences.

“Those came straight from Dr. Godfrey's class,” Fisher said. “I distinctly remember the day I left that class and went out and totally changed the whole model because of something he taught.”

This Year's Forecast

As for his prediction of the Turning of the Maples? Fisher said the beloved campus trees will likely be at their best color October 14. According to his archive, the trees were red around October 8 last year, but he said he suspects it will be a touch later this year due to some warmer weather.

So if his prediction stands correct, students and the UNC Asheville community should be planning their mountain-top hikes and parkway drives for mid-October, and can even utilize the Fall Foliage Map to find daily data on where the color is richest.

“My favorite thing about fall is that first really crisp day when you're standing way up on the mountain in Western North Carolina and just looking over a sea of orange and red. There's no other feeling like that in the world,” Fisher said. “And any opportunity to wear flannel, in my opinion, that's an excellent day.”

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