Fisher has been obsessed with the unique weather and fall scenery in southern Appalachia for years and was looking for a way to more accurately share the best leaves the region has to offer.

“It's the most fascinating place,” Fisher said. “It's highly variable because of the complex terrain, so you can have sunny and 65 degrees 10 miles away from snowy and 25 degrees. That kind of variation is so extreme and so unique to the southern Appalachians.”

This phenomenon of highly varied weather is one many UNC Asheville students can likely relate to; the surrounding areas can get significant amounts of snow when campus and central Asheville received only frost. The same factors that create such localized storms can impact the timing of the leaves changing. Above 6,000 feet you may see peak leaves in early October that in Asheville, at 2,100 feet elevation, may not come until late October or early November, Fisher said.

“I had a passion while I was at UNC Asheville for chasing the really extreme microclimates. I would run up to the top of some mountain in the middle of nowhere and go see some crazy weather for fun,” Fisher said. “And in my last year I really got into the same thing but for fall foliage. There's a couple of really small fall foliage microclimates across WNC that can reach peak color well ahead of the rest of the area. Seeking those out and really understanding why those particular spots turn so early kind of scratched that same weather itch, that fascination that I had.”

The idea for the Fall Foliage Map began when Fisher started to learn more about geographic information systems (GIS), mapping, and data analytics.

“One of the first random projects I thought up was to take pre-made 2D fall foliage maps that displayed average timing of peak color and overlay them onto a 3D surface. So that 3D surface was really a valuable visual for helping people understand the variation in timing.”

Fisher was inspired to launch the map via ExploreFall after seeing a need for more detailed, high resolution foliage maps. Typical foliage maps show changes at a county level, but in the mountains each county can include a variety of climates. So instead, Fisher’s map observes and forecasts fall foliage at 2.5 kilometer resolution, for a total of more than two million locations across the country.

“The goal is to improve accuracy, help more people find really good fall color, and learn more about the science of fall foliage, and how exactly the weather plays into that using statistical methods,” Fisher said.

The map shows the current, observed fall color anywhere in the lower 48, categorized by amount — little to no color, low, moderate, high, peak and past peak color — as well as a 10-day forecast for upcoming color. 

As for his prediction of the Turning of the Maples? Fisher said the beloved campus trees will likely be at their best color October 14. According to his archive, the trees were red around October 8 last year, but he said he suspects it will be a touch later this year due to some warmer weather. 

So if his prediction stands correct, students and the UNC Asheville community should be planning their mountain-top hikes and parkway drives for mid-October, and can even utilize the Fall Foliage Map to find daily data on where the color is richest.

“My favorite thing about fall is that first really crisp day when you're standing way up on the mountain in Western North Carolina and just looking over a sea of orange and red. There's no other feeling like that in the world,” Fisher said. “And any opportunity to wear flannel, in my opinion, that's an excellent day.”